Asi Hell

Capítulo 30

Bird Mouth slapped his forehead.

"I thought so too, but it doesn't seem so. First, the earliest discovered part is difficult to identify because it was run over by a truck and soaked in water, but the second person's weapon can be identified. There's a suspicious knife wound on the right hand. It can be determined that it wasn't a saw but a machete or something similar that was used to cut it off. The fourth person also has the same weapon marks on their body. When I received the information, only the fourth person's arm was found, so this wound must have been found on the arm. Therefore, the second and fourth people were killed by the same perpetrator. In addition, the second person's left hand and the third person's left hand were found together in the same place. They were found in Showa-cho, tied together with a rope. Therefore, the perpetrator after the second person is definitely the same person. The problem now is that the girls presumed to be the second and fourth people have no connection with each other."

"The fourth person can be identified solely by their arm?"

"The fourth one is almost certain. She's a delinquent girl who was arrested during a crackdown on prostitution. She's only fifteen, but it's more like a honey trap than prostitution; 'counseling' is closer to an arrest. I heard they identified her based on the fingerprints she left at the time. You might find it strange that a minor would have to leave fingerprints? That's because she was wearing heavy makeup and dressed like a prostitute when she was arrested, so you couldn't tell she was a minor. The second one was recognized by her parents; apparently, they said the mole and birthmark were in the same location."

"I see. But are it really that hard to find common ground between these two people?"

After Kyogoku finished speaking, he still wore his usual sour face.

However, he seems to be enjoying himself quite a bit today.

"The fourth victim was the daughter of a photo studio owner in Kawasaki, she was really wicked. The second was the daughter of an elementary school teacher in Hanno, which is already in Saitama Prefecture. She was said to be a well-behaved girl, but she ran away from home when she disappeared."

Toriguchi paused here, gave a shy smile, looked at me and Kyogoku-do interchangeably, and said:

"You must be wondering why I know all this, right?"

"It's certainly not because you have any supernatural inspiration."

After Kyogoku-do finished speaking, he glanced at me.

"Haha, there is indeed an agency, and it's a perfectly legitimate one, but it's just not convenient to talk about it publicly."

Torikochi took another paper bag from his briefcase and pulled out some documents, placing them on the table.

"This is a list of missing girls. I finally got it from the inside spy that Mr. Sekiguchi mentioned the day before yesterday. He calls him a spy, but he's actually a patrolman at the Meguro Police Station. He's not a bad person, just a really nice guy who's especially cooperative with good young people like me."

"You're wrong. You should say, 'That's why they can be fooled by a conman like me.'"

I took the opportunity to get my revenge.

"That's one way to put it."

It had absolutely no effect.

"In short, both documents have arrived, and at first glance, they seem to have no connection. However, regarding the fourth delinquent girl, her name is Yoshimi Kakizaki. According to the police's list, her guardian, who is also the owner of the photo studio, is named Kazue Kakizaki, and his wife is named Sada Kakizaki."

Bird Mouth flipped open a list of documents he had obtained illegally from the police and pointed them out to us.

"When I saw this name, it looked familiar, like I'd seen it in this ledger before. Then it suddenly dawned on me: Look here, under the column for a certain famous female singer."

This time, Toriguchi opened the register of Mihako-dōji devotees, turned it around, and handed it to Kyogoku-dō. I also went over to take a look. Underneath a famous singer's name was written:

“Kakizaki Sadakata”.

Beside it were densely packed, hastily written notes in pencil. Toriguchi asked Kyogoku-do to read them aloud.

"She is the wife of the photo studio owner. The business is not doing well, which is the reason for the poor sales. Misfortune will soon follow, so be careful. She has a daughter who was once involved in prostitution and is rumored to have had shameless relationships with a large number of men, including postwar activists and GIs (note). Isn't this family full of scoundrels? My daughter is in trouble—my daughter is in trouble?"

“That was Kiyono’s prophecy, which is why I found it suspicious. I began to suspect that there should be some connection between the two documents, and it turned out to be true.”

Toriguchi's lengthy explanation finally began with the conclusion.

"Since the beginning of the year, there have been 73 unsolved cases of missing girls in the Kanto region, with 23 of them occurring between late August and late September. This high frequency is extremely unusual, with nearly 30% of the cases occurring within the month of late August to late September. Moreover, among these 73 cases, 10 overlap with the list of Mihako-dōji devotees. I cannot determine whether this is a lot or a little."

"The number of believers of Mikoto is far less than that of other emerging religions, but in terms of scale, the proportion is quite high. Out of 300 believers, 10 have experienced the misfortune of 'daughter disappearance,' which is as high as one in thirty. The probability of the same misfortune occurring is quite high."

Torikochi seemed a little impatient, and immediately continued as soon as Kyogoku-do finished speaking:

"The odds are even higher if we look at it from another perspective. Ten of the missing girls' records overlap with the Mikotodama's ledger. Then, the police speculate that there are thirteen girls who may have been victims of the dismemberment murders. Seven of these ten records overlap with the thirteen girls. In other words, it is very likely that seven of the thirteen victims were daughters of Mikotodama believers. From this perspective, the proportion is more than 50%. And the two who are almost certain to be victims are also among them."

"I see. So you've discovered a common thread among the victims that even the police haven't noticed."

Kyogoku-do said in a completely flat and monotone voice.

I felt slightly excited.

This may become an important prelude to a solution to the major issue currently the talk of the town.

(Note: In Japan, "postwar faction" specifically refers to young people who disregarded traditional social morality and committed crimes in groups after World War II. "GI" is an abbreviation for "Government Issue," a colloquial term used in postwar Japan for American soldiers.)

"One more thing, in the column for the families of the missing girls in the ledger, Kiyono wrote ominous predictions for all of them. In other words, the daughters of people who gave away small amounts of money in June and July all went missing."

"So, you believe that the Musashino serial dismemberment murders are related to Mihako-no-kami, is that right, Toriguchi?"

"No, it's not just related. Regardless of whether he was the actual perpetrator, I believe the cult leader of the Mikoto God is the mastermind behind the series of dismemberment murders, so—"

Toriguchi Morihiko resolutely said:

"Therefore, I want to report the Mikoto deity, not as a medium, but as a criminal."

"Please explain in more detail."

Kyogoku-do rarely showed any interest in such trivial matters, and at that moment, the possibility of me conveying my intention to visit to the host was almost zero.

However, Torikochi gave an extremely useless answer.

"I really wanted to go into more detail, but I can't go any further. I don't know whether to say I'm regretful or embarrassed, but my attempt to conduct the infiltration interview failed, which is why I'm sitting here now seeking your advice—"

With a half-smile, Bird Mouth scratched his head.

I thought to myself, "Oh no."

If things continue like this, Kyogoku-do, who initially showed interest, might back out. And that would be one thing, but this eccentric friend is also likely to use all sorts of sophistry to dissuade Toriko. As a result, this highly anticipated exclusive project might be relegated to storage, never to see the light of day again.

Is it really okay for this major discovery, which even the police didn't notice, to remain buried in the shadows? I'm the one who caused this situation, and I can't let it go unchecked. Driven by a strange sense of duty, I began to raise the bird's beak.

"No, Torakuchi, you've already done a remarkable job. You got the list of missing girls from the police the day before yesterday, right? To be able to connect it to the Mikoto's ledger in just one day and construct such a deduction is quite an achievement. From what you just said, I roughly understand the structure of Mikoto as a medium and its activities, which are almost indistinguishable from fraud. This information is more than enough. So, it seems that it's alright not to infiltrate and interview them, right? No, there's no need to interview them anymore."

"Does 'no need for interviews' mean it doesn't need to be written into a report, Mr. Sekiguchi?"

Bird Mouth looked at me with a surprised expression, and I said in an even more useless voice:

"You're so stupid. Of course it's the opposite. I want you to write the report as soon as possible without delay. Toriguchi, you've already grasped a sufficiently convincing factual relationship—no, you could even say you've grasped the evidence. I'm the one who brought you here, although it might seem a bit unreasonable for me to say this, but rather than spending time listening to Kyogoku-do's nonsense and sophistry here, it's better to sit down in front of the manuscript and work hard as soon as possible."

"pass."

Perhaps because he was unwilling to accept my teasing, Kyogoku-do glared at me with a sinister look in his eyes.

"Are you really such a promiscuous guy, or do you look down on 'Real Crime' magazine just because it's considered trash?"

"Why do I say that? I want him to write a report. Listen carefully, Mihako-gami is extremely suspicious. The relationship between the list and the ledger is too consistent. This is more reliable than any other evidence, right? This is a heinous crime. To increase the amount of donations, he is making believers unhappy by force. And it's not fraud or intimidation, it's murder. Four innocent girls have already been killed, and they died in such a horrific way, with their limbs cut off and thrown around. The police don't even know about Mihako-gami's existence. If this is left unchecked, there will probably be a fifth or sixth victim soon. Even if the mind is a difficult thing to deal with, this is clearly a cruel crime committed for profit."

To me, there is now a clear causal relationship between the seemingly unrelated events of the "spiritual medium" Mikoto and the Musashino serial dismemberment murders. It would be very unnatural to say that the two are completely unrelated now.

“What a rash opinion. You heard it all, Toriguchi, that’s why I said Mr. Sekiguchi will never be able to be an editor of a worthless magazine.”

After finishing his sentence, Kyogoku-do lit a cigarette.

I didn't mean to imitate him, but I did take out a cigarette from my breast pocket and put it in my mouth.

It seems I've been spoken ill of without even realizing it.

Kyogoku-do, looking as if the smell of cigarette smoke was awful, exhaled smoke and said:

"If it were that easy and irresponsible to fabricate reports, no one would bother with the hard work of conducting interviews. Toriguchi simply got an interesting idea from some random material he came across. If it turned out to be true, it would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, which is why he went to conduct the interview. But his opponent was tenacious, so he encountered setbacks, am I right?"

Bird Mouth replied:

"Well, as Mr. Chuzenji said, it's just a simple inspiration."

"Birdmouth, how come you're so insecure now? Weren't you just showing off your silver tongue with such confidence? And even if it was just an inspiration, the consistency between the ledger and the list is too high. Wasn't it said to be more than 50%? This can't be a coincidence."

"No matter how high the success rate is, it's just a possibility, it can't be used as evidence. If I had evidence, I would have called the police long ago."

"What?"

“I said, I will call the police, that’s only natural, right?”

Torikochi appears to have a wide range of expressions, but in reality, he only displays a few types. I was caught off guard by this completely unexpected answer and inadvertently glanced at his feignedly confused profile. Kyogoku-do didn't miss this moment, saying:

"This is a citizen's duty, isn't it? Toriguchi is very sensible. In comparison, Sekiguchi really doesn't understand anything at all. If you have evidence of a crime, there's absolutely no benefit in hiding it. Exposing crimes and reporting criminals is the job of the police, and punishment is left to the law. A mere magazine shouldn't overstep its bounds and do these things. This is especially true for a magazine like this, which is considered to violate public order and good morals and is often regulated. At most, they should cooperate with the police. Nobody wants to engage in undercover investigations, which would attract the attention of the police. I believe Toriguchi's handwriting is clear enough—"

The bird nodded.

"But if we just chase after the police and write stories like other media outlets, these low-circulation, low-selling, crime-focused magazines will all die out. That's why we need to be even more creative and find aspects that other media haven't noticed to write about. But that doesn't mean we can just write whatever comes to mind based on imagination, because nobody wants to read that kind of reporting. Nowadays, readers are very discerning and can spot fabricated stories at a glance. Besides, crime-related reporting could involve defamation, which is too risky for a low-quality magazine. Toriguchi, right?"

Bird Mouth nodded deeply once again.

“Sekiguchi, a novelist like you can write whatever you want, and that might not have been the case when the war just ended, but given the current situation, especially for editors of trashy magazines, you need to be more sensitive than necessary.”

"It's really sensitive—"

Bird Mouth returned to his usual attitude.

"However, my attitude is not as serious as Mr. Chuzenji said. I just lack confidence, which is why I came to discuss this."

"Lack of confidence? That's going too far, Bird Mouth. I was listening to you all this time. And where did you say you lacked confidence? Your accuracy rate is over 50%!"

"Probability is nothing but sophistry, a numerical trick that makes uncertain future predictions seem accurate. For example, let's assume there's a 50% chance of rain tomorrow. Then whether it rains or it's sunny, it's a correct prediction, isn't it?"

Kyogoku-do's curt comment made me realize something. I'd never thought about this before, but he was absolutely right. If the weather forecast says there's a 70% chance of rain, then even if it's sunny, there's a 30% chance it's true. Conversely, if it actually rains, there's a 30% chance it's wrong. In any case, anything not 100% is just a reference value.

"Therefore, the possibility may indeed exist, but talking about probability is not very useful."

Upon hearing Kyogoku-do's speech, Toriguchi nodded vigorously. It seemed I had been completely ostracized today, but admitting defeat like this was truly unacceptable.

"But do you really think that Mikoto has absolutely nothing to do with the dismemberment case? After hearing the reasoning just now, it seems impossible that it's unrelated."

"Because you only see information that comes with a conclusion first and then is selected based on that conclusion, of course you'll think that way. Didn't you just say that this kind of thinking is problematic? Listen carefully, Sekiguchi, right now the only two kinds of information that can support this argument are these two kinds of information, but at this stage we don't even know if these two kinds of information are true or false."

Kyogoku leaned forward and showed me the two documents. He was right; if these documents weren't reliable, there was nothing to discuss.

"But at least this one came from the police—"

"There is no evidence to guarantee that the police search is absolutely reliable, and it is also doubtful whether the police officer, whether Meguro or Yutenji, could really have obtained such a list from his standpoint. Moreover, we currently have no way of determining the authenticity of Mikoto's account book."

"Indeed, it's possible that Kiyono came up with it himself. I never thought of that."

"But why would he do something like that? It's so unnatural!"

"There are as many reasons as you can ask for. To undermine the Mikoto gods, fabricating strange rumors is the most effective method."

"But it's really strange that, regardless of whether it's genuine or fake, the information from two different sources has so much in common."

Kyogoku-do scratched his chin a few times, sounding a bit impatient.

“I’m telling you, if you weren’t here, I think it would only take a fifth of the time to resolve this. No matter how many commonalities there are, no, even if everything matches perfectly, the odds are still not 100%. You’ve forgotten the biggest possibility.”

What is it?

"Of course it's a 'coincidence'."

Kyogoku-do muttered to himself.

"If a detective novel were to explain everything with 'coincidence,' readers would likely criticize it for being unfair. But unfortunately, 90% of the time, it is indeed caused by chance. Even if its inevitability is proven in theory, the possibility of chance cannot be eliminated; even if an experiment succeeds 10,000 times, there is no guarantee that it won't fail on the 10,001st time, and it might fail every time after that. In other words, perhaps the experiment only succeeded by chance on those 10,000 occasions. If that's the case, the success of the experiment is ultimately just a probability, and cannot prove that it is inevitable."